FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
FAA's 28th Annual Aviation Forecast Shows Recovery Pace Slow But Determined WASHINGTON, DC The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) today released its annual FAA Aerospace Forecast for fiscal years 2003-2014. The forecast indicates an eventual recovery in demand for aviation products and services, but at a slower rate than last year’s forecast estimates. Last year, passenger traffic was expected to return to pre-Sept. 11, 2001, levels of growth by fiscal year 2004. This year, a return to pre-Sept. 11 activity levels has been moved back slightly to the 2005 through 2006 time period.
The forecast provides airline planners a prediction tool to respond to a rapidly changing airspace system and highlights the administration’s various initiatives to help airlines meet the need for safer, more efficient travel.
“Our national aviation strategy must be built upon the ability of our infrastructure to support inevitable growth and change in the industry,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Norman Y. Mineta. “This administration is committed to the vitality of the aviation industry and, most importantly, providing the public even greater levels of safe, efficient air travel.”
In addition to industry, the forecast is also a valuable tool for FAA planners.
“This year’s forecast underscores the point that rapidly changing industry conditions demand the FAA put operational realities at the forefront of our planning,” said FAA Administrator Marion C. Blakey. “Anticipating change and an integrated approach to installing new air traffic control systems, exploiting new aircraft technologies and employing a consistent, common-sense approach to oversight and regulation can facilitate the industry’s recovery.”
This year’s forecast predicts passenger enplanements of 646.9 million in 2003, 679.8 million in 2004, 709.1 million in 2005, and 737.6 million in 2006. While last year’s forecast predicted enplanements to reach one billion by 2013, this milestone is not expected to be reached during the 12-year forecast period, with enplanements reaching 996.2 million by 2014. The reduced pace of U.S. commercial and general aviation’s recovery is due largely to the lingering effects of the 2001 economic slowdown and events surrounding Sept. 11, 2001.
While the FAA has taken great care to provide an accurate forecast, some important variables could affect severely the industry’s ability to recover and bolster revenue. Some of these include: ·The possibility of military actions, terrorist acts and corresponding security measures; ·Higher jet fuel and oil prices associated with volatility in the Middle East; and ·The potential for more airline bankruptcies, as well as the industry’s current financial condition, which may also have an impact on the amount of services offered to travelers.
The most encouraging news in the FAA forecast comes from the regional/commuter industry segment. These are airlines that predominantly utilize aircraft with 70 seats or less. This segment of air travel is expected to grow at a faster rate over the forecast’s 12-year period than the larger domestic commercial carriers. Regional/commuter airlines are expected to grow at 5.6 percent annually as compared to the larger airlines growing at a rate of 3.5 percent annually. Stronger growth is expected to result from additional passengers obtained through arrangements with larger code- sharing partners, as well as the creation of more nontraditional point- to-point routings that use new regional jets.
Air cargo is also expected to grow at rates higher than those predicted for passenger traffic, with domestic and international Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) increasing at annual rates of 3.9 and 5.8 percent respectively over the 12- year FAA forecast period.
For general aviation, the FAA predicts low to moderate increases. For the 12- year time frame covered by the forecast, the agency sees a 0.7 percent increase in its active fleet, and hours flown to increase by 1.5 percent annually. Most of this growth is expected to occur in business and corporate flying.
FAA's 28th Annual Aviation Forecast Shows Recovery Pace Slow But Determined WASHINGTON, DC The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) today released its annual FAA Aerospace Forecast for fiscal years 2003-2014. The forecast indicates an eventual recovery in demand for aviation products and services, but at a slower rate than last year’s forecast estimates. Last year, passenger traffic was expected to return to pre-Sept. 11, 2001, levels of growth by fiscal year 2004. This year, a return to pre-Sept. 11 activity levels has been moved back slightly to the 2005 through 2006 time period.
The forecast provides airline planners a prediction tool to respond to a rapidly changing airspace system and highlights the administration’s various initiatives to help airlines meet the need for safer, more efficient travel.
“Our national aviation strategy must be built upon the ability of our infrastructure to support inevitable growth and change in the industry,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Norman Y. Mineta. “This administration is committed to the vitality of the aviation industry and, most importantly, providing the public even greater levels of safe, efficient air travel.”
In addition to industry, the forecast is also a valuable tool for FAA planners.
“This year’s forecast underscores the point that rapidly changing industry conditions demand the FAA put operational realities at the forefront of our planning,” said FAA Administrator Marion C. Blakey. “Anticipating change and an integrated approach to installing new air traffic control systems, exploiting new aircraft technologies and employing a consistent, common-sense approach to oversight and regulation can facilitate the industry’s recovery.”
This year’s forecast predicts passenger enplanements of 646.9 million in 2003, 679.8 million in 2004, 709.1 million in 2005, and 737.6 million in 2006. While last year’s forecast predicted enplanements to reach one billion by 2013, this milestone is not expected to be reached during the 12-year forecast period, with enplanements reaching 996.2 million by 2014. The reduced pace of U.S. commercial and general aviation’s recovery is due largely to the lingering effects of the 2001 economic slowdown and events surrounding Sept. 11, 2001.
While the FAA has taken great care to provide an accurate forecast, some important variables could affect severely the industry’s ability to recover and bolster revenue. Some of these include: ·The possibility of military actions, terrorist acts and corresponding security measures; ·Higher jet fuel and oil prices associated with volatility in the Middle East; and ·The potential for more airline bankruptcies, as well as the industry’s current financial condition, which may also have an impact on the amount of services offered to travelers.
The most encouraging news in the FAA forecast comes from the regional/commuter industry segment. These are airlines that predominantly utilize aircraft with 70 seats or less. This segment of air travel is expected to grow at a faster rate over the forecast’s 12-year period than the larger domestic commercial carriers. Regional/commuter airlines are expected to grow at 5.6 percent annually as compared to the larger airlines growing at a rate of 3.5 percent annually. Stronger growth is expected to result from additional passengers obtained through arrangements with larger code- sharing partners, as well as the creation of more nontraditional point- to-point routings that use new regional jets.
Air cargo is also expected to grow at rates higher than those predicted for passenger traffic, with domestic and international Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) increasing at annual rates of 3.9 and 5.8 percent respectively over the 12- year FAA forecast period.
For general aviation, the FAA predicts low to moderate increases. For the 12- year time frame covered by the forecast, the agency sees a 0.7 percent increase in its active fleet, and hours flown to increase by 1.5 percent annually. Most of this growth is expected to occur in business and corporate flying.