500 MPH At Reno: Doubtful this year?

[AAFO_WSagar]

Hi Betty.... I think I'm an "honorary" NAG does that count?? Check yer pm's.. I'm leaving on Thursday *sometime* shooting for prior to noon but.. it's rare that I ever make a deadline!!

THANKS!
Wayne

[Lowell]

500 mph lap NOT doubtful this year!

Here are some calculations using the new course lengths. First of all a review of the basic math. There are 3,600 seconds in an hour and you need that figure when translating a lap speed in seconds to mph.
The old course was 8.2688 miles so multiply that by 3600. It gave you 29767.68. Now divide that figure by the lap time in seconds. Skip's lap time last year was 59.80 seconds so you get his lap speed of 497.787.

29767.68 / 59.80 = 497.7872909 = 497.787

Now plug in the new course length! 8.4803 miles x 3600 seconds equals your new factor number (save it in the memory of your pocket calculator this year during quals!!!) which is 30529.08.

Are you ready for this????

30529.08 / 59.80 = 510.5197324 = 510.520 mph !!!!

Tiger's 61.15 lap last year would have almost broke 500 as well. His speed would have been 499.249.

With the old course length the 500mph barrier would have been first eclipsed with a 59.53 lap time (500.045 mph), but now one could do it with a 61.05 second lap (500.067 mph). That is a tad over 1.5 seconds more time allowed, which doesn't seem like much but it really is at this speed.

A month or so ago Wayne you had us post our predictions and I wrote in part...
"It is the Year of the Round Engine with only a few exceptions. The first and most notable exception will be Dago Red's 59.33 second lap (only 0.47 seconds faster than last year) that sets the new 501.731 record on a hot Wednesday afternoon. In cooler and windier weather earlier in the week Rare Bear turns a 60.02 second lap that translates to 495.963 mph where they feel they will keep the pole with the then struggling race #4 team looking all but out of it. September Fury has previously cruised to the new Sea Fury record speed of 493.905. Critical Mass isn't far (0.93 seconds) behind them, though maybe pushing much harder at 486.400. "

The new course length now makes me have to change this using the same lap times to read...

"It is the Year of the Round Engine with only a few exceptions. The first and most notable exception will be Dago Red's 59.33 second lap (only 0.47 seconds faster than last year) that sets the new 514.564 record on a hot Wednesday afternoon. In cooler and windier weather earlier in the week Rare Bear turns a 60.02 second lap that translates to 508.648 mph where they feel they will keep the pole with the then struggling race #4 team looking all but out of it. September Fury has previously cruised to the new Sea Fury record speed of 506.539, and taken honors as the first team ever with a 500mph plus official qualifying lap. Critical Mass isn't far (0.93 seconds) behind them, though maybe pushing much harder at 498.841."

Stink! And to think I won't be there until Friday afternoon the 12th this year, because a new job prevents me the time off to attend qualifying. Tell me all about it when I arrive and please folks get some good video for the late arrivers like me.

Lowell
RRRRR (Roundies Rule Reno with Resounding Records! or will it be 'Red Repeats to Rule Reno Race???)

[Unregistered]

This new timing method has brought up several questions. First, how many times has the timing been changed? In other words, comparing the laps and speeds of Jeannie and Conquest 1 might not be possible as they existed under different rules? Second, why the change? If it seemed that there was to be a 500 mph lap, couldn't we leave it the same and watch it happen the hard way? Knowing the 497 mph lap last year was convertible to a 500 plus lap under the new measuring system cheapens any qualifying records set this year, and in comparison to last year cheapens the achievements of the sport. Its already pretty hard to measure the relative speed of two objects moving in a three dimensional space, but to change the divisor to bump up the speeds/consumer interest? seems to be a move by the RARA that will result in damage to the reputation long term. I wonder if anyone can post the changes to measuring that may relate to how different eras raced, 49 Cleveland Course, 78 Reno Course ect...I always thought you could compare the Baron with Cleland's Race 94'. To compare a slightly slower Dago 2003 with Dago 2002, Dago can go 5 mph slower and lap above 500! Thats not right.

[AAFO_WSagar]

Re: 500 mph lap NOT doubtful this year!

Originally posted by Lowell
With the old course length the 500mph barrier would have been first eclipsed with a 59.53 lap time (500.045 mph), but now one could do it with a 61.05 second lap (500.067 mph). That is a tad over 1.5 seconds more time allowed, which doesn't seem like much but it really is at this speed.

Hummn... sort of takes a little of the polish off of it for me....

So, in order to compare apples to apples, we're going to have to figure back to the old formula for when someone "really" does break 500?

Lowell.. you're a historian of the sport, do you happen to have an old course layout that had the actual distance between pylons at the time John Penney set the old record? If one did have that, then based on the percentage of difference between the actual measured distance between pylons of the new measurment, versus a similar calculation of the old layout (when Penney set the old record) one could theorize what the "actual" speed would have been for that run, based on the new way of measuring the course.. or, did the old course have more "fudge" factor built in?

I readily admit to not being a "numbers guy"... so I usually leave this stuff to those who are...

Thanks for the calculations Lowell... new "speeds" should make for some excited fans.

Wayne

[Unregistered]

In order for dago to break 500 they will not need to risk the engine any more than they have the last 5 years. They've qualified using the same power setting since 98 and this year I don't think anything will change except for their speed. Even using the original timing they Will break 500 with no aditional power. Thats just how slick that team is. It's not a matter of if they do it, it's by how much. I know I'm making some very bold statements here, but I think there needs to be some stiring of the pot here. Here are my qualifying predictions for this year.

Dago: 507
sept fury: 478
the Bear: 466
critical mass:458
Drednaught:436
Czechmate:433
voodoo:428
furias:427

[AAFO_WSagar]

Dago: 507
sept fury: 478
the Bear: 466
critical mass:458
Drednaught:436
Czechmate:433
voodoo:428
furias:427

Hummn let's see...

I'm supposed to be impartial and to be completely honest, I'm a race fan at heart so.... Who can be totally impartial

But even being impartial....


sept fury: 478
the Bear: 466

I seriously doubt this... I don't know what Mike was turning in for times when he was pushing Sept Fury in June (and he was on some laps) but without pushing, John turned in some 475+ laps during the same weekend.. that being with the old timing factors being used..

I don't know what Mike will turn in but I SERIOUSLY doubt that Rare Bear will qualify sub 480, likely, closer to 500 with the new timing method...

critical mass:458

Oh groan... I can almost smell DialTapper's blood boiling already on this one... !!

I'd suspect higher, unless they have problems.. healthy, I'd put them much closer to 480-490 range, again, with the new distance figures..

Drednaught:436
Czechmate:433
voodoo:428
furias:427

Hummn... Hummn...... Hummn and ... Hummn.....

What I'd *like* to see is a REALLY good battle between these four airplanes... don't care how fast they're going, but would this make for some action! How'd you like to be Sherm, stuck behind Dreds and Furryass goin at it and try to get round those two!!

Consider the pot stirred... now, back to the kitchen... my eggs are burnin..

Wayne

[Reever]

Shouldn't Miss A be considered as part of that group of four? Too much of an unknown?

[Lowell]

Predicted speeds

One of the time travelers from the art bell show just faxed this over...

4 Dago Red 514.564
77 Rare Bear 508.648
232 September Fury 506.539
10 Critical Mass 498.841
15 Furias 472.586
86 Czechmate 469.029
8 Dreadnought 463.968
11 Miss America 459.307
38 Precious Metal 442.002
99 Riff Raff 425.019
117 Bad Attitude 417.007
105 Spirit of Texas 414.685
66 Fury 409.041
5 Voodoo 407.054
22 Merlin's Magic 396.894
911 September Pops 390.997
104 Joe Tobul Special 384.034
6 Flying Dutchman 374.131
14 Bearcat 370.904
9 Cloud Dancer 369.423
50 Miracle Maker 363.961
1 Big Bossman 357.483
7 Speedball Alice 334.675
42 Anya 332.597
44 Sparky 327.284
2 Wildcat 317.515

[AAFO_WSagar]

Originally posted by Reever
Shouldn't Miss A be considered as part of that group of four? Too much of an unknown?

Heck Reever... EVERYONE'S an unknown at this point!

The last month or two could be called the "silly season" this week could easily be branded, "crazy week"... it's when we all start going nutz in anticipation of just what we're going to see next monday!

SO much can happen that literally, ANYONE can win it come Sunday after next!

This is the week when everyone starts throwing smoke, including us fans.. I'm sure there's some last minute thrashing going on here and there... some "paintin' of ground equipment" and, likely, even some sitting back relaxing waiting for departure time.

NOBODY (most of all me) knows anything for sure.. Personally, I'd not leave Doc out of the mix at all.. or anyone for that matter.. I seriously doubt that Brent had the time to do what he wanted to do with his new "Ricky" engine, that being.. get it in prior to departure and get some hours on it.. But.. that's total speculation on my part, because, after he took the time to talk with us a couple weeks ago, we've left him alone to let the suspense to build. We'll find out when the good Doctor gets to town later this week.

Most of the racers are throwing sand around at about this time of the year.. nobody's going to say they are going to be fast, (unless they're blowing smoke) even if they are pretty sure they are going to be... that is, apparantly, with the exception of Dago Red and I guess, with their record, I can understand that! (but maybe they're blowing smoke.. do we *really* know?)

Ya just never know.. till Monday.. Just now checked the Reno 10 day forecast.. where yesterday or the day before, they had Monday as the hottest day of the three.. it's now showing 77 for monday, 78 for Tuesday, and 84 for Wednesday....

If that forecast holds true.. Watch for some REAL drama come final session on Wednesday....

Can you smell the excitement !

Wayne

[AAFO_WSagar]

SPUD POWER!

Originally posted by Lowell

44 Sparky 327.284

No way Lowell... I have it on pretty good authority, a sounding on the local railroad track that runs right on by here and thru Klamath Falls...

Potato Power.. think Spuds Buds...

A new, super secret mix of fuels based on the fermented elixer from the venerable Klamath Basin spud... This is straight from the Indian's ear to the track my man... Sparky... long held back by her owner FINALLY lets it all hang out...

1- Sparky..... 516.227

Followed by everyone else because, as we all know... the line for second place forms in the ladies room gentlemen!



Wayne

[FlyKidChris]

Spirit of Texas

Don't sell Dawson short. He's shown real improvement the last few years, and will again, I predict. Come Sunday, Spirit of Texas will be in the Gold.

[Leo]

I dont think Sparky could do 516.227 in a vertical dive at full power with the wings off.....

The only prediction I feel confident with is Sparky over the Wildcat, by a spinner.
Everything else is up in the air (ahem) until Sunday afternoon!
Jees I love the suspense!


Leo
Chompin' at the bit.

[Mayo]

Sleeper

This years sleeper will be a Globe Swift packin a TSIO-720

everyone can go home now, the race is over !

[Leo]

How about a PT-6 in my ASK-21? Slow but I could outlast em'...
And Pylon turns would have to be done fairly high to keep from dragging a wing.

Low temps and all, I still think Dago will do 500 first. They have consistently been the most professional team there.

[hattend]

Lowell,

In your calculations, you took the same lap times and projected it over the "new" official course length.

My question is the course really longer (they moved the pylons) this year or did somebody just now figure out the course length after the shortening of the course a few years back?

If the pylons have been moved, and the course is longer, then the times will be higher this year.

If the pylons have not been moved and there was just an inaccurate lap measurement, then Dago, Strega and Voodoo have been punching out 500 mph laps for 4 or 5 years. Bear would be there too if she hadn't been out of service.

Or am I just more confused than normal.

Don Hatten